Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-110).

Pros

At the moment, the 3rd-most run-centric offense in the league (44.1% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Raiders.
In this week’s game, Josh Jacobs is predicted by the model to place in the 99th percentile among running backs with 21.4 carries.
Josh Jacobs has garnered 81.9% of his team’s rushing play calls this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs.
The Las Vegas offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football last year at blocking for rushers.

Cons

This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3-point underdogs.
The model projects the Raiders to call the 4th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Raiders have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
Josh Jacobs has rushed for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (64.0) this year than he did last year (100.0).
The Minnesota Vikings defense owns the 5th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding just 3.85 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

Projection

THE BLITZ
91
Rushing Yards