Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chiefs vs. Bills
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-136/+105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (+105) after it opened @ 71.5 (-114).
Pros
- The model projects the Bills to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects Stefon Diggs to notch 10.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 29.5% this year, which ranks him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
- Stefon Diggs has compiled a whopping 102.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year.
Cons
- In terms of a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.97 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Bills to be the most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
- Stefon Diggs’s receiving efficiency has diminished this year, compiling a measly 8.57 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.62 mark last year.
- The Chiefs pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. wideouts this year, yielding 7.75 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards
87
Receiving Yards
