Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chigoziem Okonkwo from EV Insight

Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards

Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 32.5 (-129) after it opened @ 30.5 (-117).

Pros

The Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are heavy underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.
The predictive model expects Chigoziem Okonkwo to accrue 5.2 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 16.0% Target Share this year reflects a material progression in his pass game workload over last year’s 10.8% mark.
The Dolphins defense has conceded the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (53.0) to TEs this year.

Cons

Right now, the least pass-centric team in the league (56.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Tennessee Titans.
Our trusted projections expect the Titans to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 53.9 plays per game.
The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 71.9% to 66.6%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards