Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Saquon Barkley from EV Insight

Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards

Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-114).

Pros

The Giants have been the 9th-most run-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 41.3% run rate.
The projections expect Saquon Barkley to earn 19.8 rush attempts this week, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Among all running backs, Saquon Barkley grades out in the 97th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 66.5% of the workload in his offense’s run game.
Saquon Barkley has generated 75.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (96th percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the most adjusted yards in the league (138 per game) versus the Packers defense this year.

Cons

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 129.8 total plays called: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
When talking about executing run-blocking assignments (and the influence it has on all run game statistics), the O-line of the Giants profiles as the worst in football last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
83
Rushing Yards