Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bengals vs. Colts
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (+114/-145).
The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (+114) after it opened @ 61.5 (-110).
Pros
- With a 3-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week’s game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see 138.0 offensive plays called: the highest number among all games this week.
- The predictive model expects Joe Mixon to garner 17.6 carries in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
- Joe Mixon has picked up 57.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in the league when it comes to RBs (83rd percentile).
- The opposing side have run for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the league (136 per game) vs. the Colts defense this year.
Cons
- The Bengals may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) because they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jake Browning.
- The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 10th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 40.4% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 56.2 plays per game.
- The leading projections forecast Joe Mixon to be a much smaller part of his team’s rushing attack in this contest (62.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (77.1% in games he has played).
- When talking about run-blocking (and the effect it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Cincinnati Bengals ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards
72
Rushing Yards
