Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tanner HudsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bengals vs. Colts
Right now, Tanner Hudson’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-125/-109).
The public has bet the OVER up to 24.5 (-125) after it opened @ 21.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Bengals may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) because they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jake Browning.
- Right now, the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (66.9% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Bengals.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see 138.0 offensive plays called: the highest number among all games this week.
- After accruing 10.0 air yards per game last year, Tanner Hudson has shown good development this year, currently sitting at 24.0 per game.
- Tanner Hudson’s 26.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 11.7.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week’s game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 56.2 plays per game.
- Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Colts, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 34.0 per game) this year.
- As it relates to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Bengals ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year.
- With a subpar 3.35 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (18th percentile) this year, Tanner Hudson rates among the best pass-game TEs in the league in space.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
