Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-114).
Pros
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 7th-most in football.
- With an impressive 88.5% Route Participation Rate (82nd percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel stands among the wide receivers with the highest volume in football.
- The leading projections forecast Deebo Samuel to accrue 6.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- After totaling 32.0 air yards per game last season, Deebo Samuel has been rising this season, now pacing 38.0 per game.
- Deebo Samuel comes in as one of the best WRs in the game this year, averaging an outstanding 57.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.
Cons
- This game’s line implies an extreme rushing game script for the 49ers, who are heavily favored by 14.5 points.
- The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (just 53.6 per game on average).
- In regards to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the 49ers grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
