Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 210.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 210.5 (-110) after it opened @ 213.5 (-110).

Pros

The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.1 per game) this year.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Broncos ranks as the 6th-best in football this year.
Russell Wilson’s 67.5% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a significant improvement in his throwing accuracy over last season’s 59.3% rate.
This year, the anemic Chargers defense has been torched for a whopping 290.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the worst in the NFL.

Cons

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
At the present time, the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (58.4% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Broncos.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Broncos are projected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Broncos have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.2 plays per game.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Los Angeles’s safety corps has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 9th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
236
Passing Yards