Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tucker KraftReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Packers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Tucker Kraft’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game’s spread implies a passing game script for the Packers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers to pass on 60.6% of their chances: the 6th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- In this game, Tucker Kraft is anticipated by our trusted projection set to place in the 81st percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.2 targets.
- While Tucker Kraft has accounted for 2.3% of his offense’s targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Green Bay’s pass game in this contest at 12.0%.
- With a terrific 89.4% Adjusted Catch% (88th percentile) this year, Tucker Kraft ranks as one of the most reliable receivers in the league when it comes to TEs.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Packers to run the 7th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Packers have called the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.5 plays per game.
- Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.3 per game) this year.
- In regards to air yards, Tucker Kraft ranks in the paltry 20th percentile among tight ends this year, accruing just 2.0 per game.
- The Chiefs defense has yielded the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 39.0) versus tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
