Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alvin Kamara from EV Insight

Alvin KamaraRushing Yards

Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-137/+106).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (+106) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.8 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 63.7 plays per game.
Alvin Kamara has been given 56.3% of his team’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs.
With an impressive rate of 60.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (86th percentile), Alvin Kamara places among the top RBs in the league this year.

Cons

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Saints to run on 37.3% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
This year, the fierce Detroit Lions run defense has given up a paltry 90.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 4th-fewest in the league.
The Detroit Lions defensive ends project as the 5th-best group of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards