Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Rams vs. Browns
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-115) after it opened @ 27.5 (-110).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 133.2 total plays called: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may slide.
- Tyler Higbee has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (82.6% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (69.7%).
- In this game, Tyler Higbee is projected by the projections to slot into the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.2 targets.
- After accruing 19.0 air yards per game last year, Tyler Higbee has seen a big uptick this year, now averaging 28.0 per game.
Cons
- This game’s spread suggests a rushing game script for the Rams, who are favored by 3.5 points.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 26.8 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense this year: fewest in the league.
- When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the importance it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Rams grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.
- Tyler Higbee has compiled significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (38.0).
- Tyler Higbee rates as one of the most unreliable receivers in football among TEs, hauling in a measly 66.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 18th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
