Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Jets vs. Falcons
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-120/-110).
Pros
- The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week’s contest (and call more carries) because they be forced to use backup QB Tim Boyle.
- The New York Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New York Jets to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 7th-highest rate among all teams this week.
- With a stellar 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (77th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin stands among the leading pass-game TEs in football.
- The Falcons defense has allowed the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (61.0) to TEs this year.
Cons
- The New York Jets have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Jets grades out as the worst in the league this year.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.85 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
