Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Jaguars vs. Bengals
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-114) after it opened @ 67.5 (-117).
Pros
- This week’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are heavily favored by 10.5 points.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jaguars to run on 46.2% of their downs: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.3 plays per game.
- The predictive model expects Travis Etienne to accumulate 16.8 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 4.96 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see just 124.1 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
- In regards to executing run-blocking assignments (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Jaguars profiles as the worst in football last year.
- Travis Etienne’s rushing efficiency has declined this year, notching just 3.66 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.07 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
