Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jake BrowningPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Jaguars vs. Bengals
Right now, Jake Browning’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the OVER up to 220.5 (-101) after it opened @ 218.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Bengals may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning.
- At a -10.5-point disadvantage, the Bengals are giant underdogs in this week’s contest, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical game plan.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.6% of their plays: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.
- Jake Browning has been one of the most on-target quarterbacks in the league this year with an outstanding 71.3% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 87th percentile.
Cons
- The model projects the Bengals to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Bengals have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.3 plays per game.
- In regards to pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the worst in the league this year.
- As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville’s group of CBs has been great this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
257
Passing Yards
257
Passing Yards
