Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Jaguars vs. Bengals
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 251.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 251.5 (-125) after it opened @ 240.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.3 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have passed for the most adjusted yards in the league (267.0 per game) versus the Bengals defense this year.
- This year, the anemic Bengals defense has been torched for the most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to the opposing side: a massive 8.69 yards.
- When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Cincinnati’s safety corps has been dreadful this year, grading out as the worst in the league.
Cons
- This week’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are heavily favored by 10.5 points.
- Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see just 124.1 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
- The predictive model expects Trevor Lawrence to throw 31.6 passes in this contest, on balance: the fewest out of all QBs.
Projection
THE BLITZ
230
Passing Yards
230
Passing Yards
