Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-131) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).

Pros

The predictive model expects Joe Mixon to accrue 15.6 carries in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Joe Mixon has been a much bigger part of his team’s running game this year (79.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (68.6%).
Joe Mixon has picked up 55.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in football among running backs (80th percentile).

Cons

The Bengals may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning.
At a -10.5-point disadvantage, the Bengals are giant underdogs in this week’s contest, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical game plan.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bengals to run on 34.4% of their opportunities: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
The model projects the Bengals to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have run for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 91.0 per game) versus the Jaguars defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards