Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Keenan Allen from EV Insight

Keenan AllenReceiving Yards

Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 88.5 (-110) after it opened @ 94.5 (-115).

Pros

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric team in football (65.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Chargers.
The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Keenan Allen to total 11.6 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Keenan Allen’s 31.5% Target% this season marks a meaningful gain in his passing attack volume over last season’s 26.4% figure.
Keenan Allen’s 105.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season shows a noteable gain in his receiving prowess over last season’s 80.0 figure.

Cons

The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
This year, the daunting Patriots pass defense has conceded the 9th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing WRs: a feeble 3.6 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
92
Receiving Yards