Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Gerald EverettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Patriots vs. Chargers
Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-115) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).
Pros
- At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric team in football (65.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Chargers.
- The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The projections expect Gerald Everett to accrue 3.6 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Gerald Everett’s receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 69.2% to 81.3%.
- When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New England’s collection of safeties has been awful this year, projecting as the 8th-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- After accumulating 31.0 air yards per game last season, Gerald Everett has seen a big decrease this season, now boasting 15.0 per game.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Gerald Everett has been used much less in his offense’s passing offense.
- This year, the daunting Patriots defense has surrendered the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a measly 6.8 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards
21
Receiving Yards
