Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).

Pros

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week’s contest (and call more carries) because they be forced to use backup QB Tim Boyle.
The New York Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New York Jets to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 7th-highest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.6 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The model projects Garrett Wilson to earn 10.7 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Cons

The New York Jets have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Jets grades out as the worst in the league this year.
With a subpar 59.8% Adjusted Catch Rate (24th percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson places among the most unreliable receivers in football among WRs.
Garrett Wilson’s pass-game efficiency has declined this year, averaging a mere 6.48 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.63 figure last year.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 131.0) versus WRs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards