Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Saints vs. Lions
Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 68.2 total plays in this game: the highest number on the slate this week.
- The Lions have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.9 plays per game.
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- In this contest, Sam LaPorta is expected by the predictive model to place in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs with 7.0 targets.
- Sam LaPorta has posted a colossal 51.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- With a 4-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
- Our trusted projections expect the Lions to be the 9th-least pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.4% pass rate.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game versus the Saints defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
- With a subpar 3.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (20th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta places as one of the top pass-game TEs in football in picking up extra yardage.
- This year, the imposing Saints defense has conceded a feeble 69.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
