Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Saints vs. Lions
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 260.5 (-114) after it opened @ 258.5 (-114).
Pros
- Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 68.2 total plays in this game: the highest number on the slate this week.
- The Lions have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.9 plays per game.
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- In this week’s contest, Jared Goff is predicted by the predictive model to have the 5th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 37.2.
- With a fantastic rate of 277.0 adjusted passing yards per game (86th percentile), Jared Goff rates among the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year.
Cons
- With a 4-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
- Our trusted projections expect the Lions to be the 9th-least pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.4% pass rate.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game versus the Saints defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 6th-fewest yards in football (just 209.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Saints defense this year.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the NFL against the New Orleans Saints defense this year (64.2% Adjusted Completion%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
261
Passing Yards
261
Passing Yards
