Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Titans vs. Panthers
Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-143/+110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (+110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-114).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to tilt 2.1% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
- The model projects Chigoziem Okonkwo to accrue 4.1 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo has posted many more air yards this season (32.0 per game) than he did last season (21.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point boost in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Chigoziem Okonkwo has been more prominently utilized in his team’s passing offense.
- This year, the poor Panthers defense has yielded the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a staggering 8.03 yards.
Cons
- The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- The model projects the Titans as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.7 per game) this year.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 20.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year conveys an impressive reduction in his receiving ability over last year’s 27.0 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
