Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Cardinals vs. Rams
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-115) after it opened @ 25.5 (-120).
Pros
- The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- Tyler Higbee has been less involved as a potential target this year (83.6% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (69.7%).
- In this game, Tyler Higbee is expected by the model to slot into the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.1 targets.
- Tyler Higbee has compiled significantly more air yards this year (28.0 per game) than he did last year (19.0 per game).
- With an impressive 5.63 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (77th percentile) this year, Tyler Higbee has been as one of the top pass-game tight ends in the NFL in the open field.
Cons
- The model projects the Rams to call the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Cardinals, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 33.3 per game) this year.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Tyler Higbee has posted substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (28.0) this year than he did last year (38.0).
- Tyler Higbee’s possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 67.6% to 63.1%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
