NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Trey McBrideReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Cardinals vs. Rams
Right now, Trey McBride’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-143/+110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-143) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The model projects Trey McBride to earn 8.1 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- While Trey McBride has been responsible for 16.8% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Arizona’s passing offense in this game at 24.5%.
- Trey McBride’s 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents a significant boost in his receiving talent over last season’s 29.0 rate.
- This year, the anemic Rams defense has yielded a colossal 59.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 4th-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- At the moment, the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in football (58.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals.
- Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are anticipated by the projection model to run just 64.1 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
- The Arizona O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
