Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Falcons vs. Saints
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-115) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).
Pros
- The model projects the Saints to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
- The projections expect Alvin Kamara to accumulate 14.1 carries in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- Alvin Kamara has earned 56.5% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- With an impressive record of 58.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (83rd percentile), Alvin Kamara ranks as one of the leading pure rushers in the league this year.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 39.6% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
- Alvin Kamara is positioned as one of the bottom running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.32 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 5th percentile.
- When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in stopping the run, Atlanta’s unit has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
