Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Courtland Sutton from EV Insight

Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+110/-141).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-114).

Pros

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
With a remarkable 91.9% Route Participation Rate (89th percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton places as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume in football.
Our trusted projections expect Courtland Sutton to accumulate 6.6 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 76th percentile among WRs.
The Denver O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Courtland Sutton grades out as one of the top WRs in the game this year, averaging a remarkable 58.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Broncos offensive approach to skew 1.4% more towards running than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The projections expect the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards