Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Javonte Williams from EV Insight

Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards

Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Broncos offensive approach to skew 1.4% more towards running than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Denver Broncos to run on 46.8% of their chances: the 6th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects Javonte Williams to accrue 17.8 carries in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Among all running backs, Javonte Williams ranks in the 88th percentile for carries this year, making up 56.3% of the workload in his offense’s rushing attack.
Javonte Williams has generated 51.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (78th percentile).

Cons

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing squads have run for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 95.0 per game) vs. the Browns defense this year.
The Cleveland defensive tackles project as the 9th-best DT corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards