Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D'Andre Swift from EV Insight

D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards

Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-115) after it opened @ 57.5 (-120).

Pros

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 9th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 46.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Eagles to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 5th-most plays in the league have been called by the Eagles this year (a staggering 61.3 per game on average).
The model projects D’Andre Swift to garner 15.3 carries in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to RBs.
This year, the strong Buffalo Bills run defense has allowed a paltry 4.61 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 27th-smallest rate in football.

Cons

D’Andre Swift’s 4.6 adjusted yards per carry this season indicates a meaningful drop-off in his rushing skills over last season’s 5.4 rate.
D’Andre Swift comes in as one of the worst RBs in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a measly 2.65 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.
The Bills linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards