Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler LockettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Right now, Tyler Lockett’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- At a -7-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are heavy underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
- The leading projections forecast the Seahawks as the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (39.4 per game) this year.
- In this contest, Tyler Lockett is predicted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 89th percentile among wide receivers with 8.2 targets.
- Tyler Lockett has been a big part of his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 23.4% this year, which ranks in the 86th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Cons
- The model projects the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The 8th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a measly 56.0 per game on average).
- Tyler Lockett’s 8.1 adjusted yards per target this season conveys a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 9.6 mark.
- With a lackluster 2.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (25th percentile) this year, Tyler Lockett rates as one of the top WRs in the league in the NFL in picking up extra yardage.
- The 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.38 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
