Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for A.J. Dillon from EV Insight

A.J. DillonRushing Yards

Right now, A.J. Dillon’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-133) after it opened @ 51.5 (-121).

Pros

The leading projections forecast A.J. Dillon to accrue 15.7 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
The leading projections forecast A.J. Dillon to be a less important option in his team’s ground game in this week’s game (35.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (48.7% in games he has played).
As it relates to executing run-blocking assignments (and the significance it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 6th-best in football last year.

Cons

An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Packers being an enormous -8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
The projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 2nd-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 35.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the model to call only 61.9 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
A.J. Dillon’s rushing effectiveness (3.47 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (17th percentile when it comes to running backs).
The Detroit Lions defense boasts the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding just 3.69 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards