NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Chargers vs. Ravens
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 244.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 244.5 (-114) after it opened @ 240.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chargers to pass on 63.7% of their plays: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 133.6 total plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
- With an outstanding total of 262.0 adjusted passing yards per game (76th percentile), Justin Herbert rates among the leading quarterbacks in the NFL this year.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Chargers offensive approach to skew 2.3% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 6th-fewest yards in football (just 211.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Ravens defense this year.
- The Ravens pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, allowing 6.29 adjusted yards-per-target: the fewest in the league.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
271
Passing Yards
271
Passing Yards
