Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Chargers vs. Ravens
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 237.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 237.5 (-133) after it opened @ 231.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by the predictive model to run 66.5 total plays in this contest: the 6th-most among all teams this week.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.5 per game) this year.
- When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year.
- Lamar Jackson’s 217.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year conveys an impressive growth in his throwing skills over last year’s 191.0 mark.
Cons
- This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
- The leading projections forecast the Ravens to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to throw 33.2 passes in this week’s game, on balance: the 11th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
Projection
THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards
240
Passing Yards
