Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-115) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).

Pros

The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tim Boyle in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are a massive 9.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jets to pass on 62.6% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
With a terrific 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (78th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin rates as one of the top tight ends in the pass game in the league.
The Miami Dolphins defense has been torched for the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (55.0) to TEs this year.

Cons

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New York Jets are anticipated by the projection model to call just 63.9 total plays in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.4 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Jets ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Miami’s group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards