Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jets vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (-115) after it opened @ 72.5 (-118).
Pros
- The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.8% pass rate.
- The predictive model expects Tyreek Hill to total 10.7 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- Tyreek Hill has been an integral part of his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 32.1% this year, which puts him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Tyreek Hill’s 117.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season signifies a noteable gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 92.0 mark.
- Tyreek Hill’s possession skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 70.8% to 74.9%.
Cons
- This week’s line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 9.5 points.
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins to run the 10th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a measly 54.2 per game on average).
- Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 33.2 per game) this year.
- After accruing 131.0 air yards per game last season, Tyreek Hill has fallen off this season, now sitting at 119.0 per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards
90
Receiving Yards
