Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

With a 7-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to run on 47.4% of their chances: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects Christian McCaffrey to total 18.6 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
As it relates to opening holes for runners (and the significance it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the 7th-best in the league last year.
Christian McCaffrey’s 90.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season marks a meaningful gain in his rushing talent over last season’s 68.0 mark.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the 49ers to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (only 53.5 per game on average).
Christian McCaffrey has been much more involved in his team’s offense this season, staying in the game for 81.9% of snaps compared to just 71.5% last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards