Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jordan LovePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Lions vs. Packers
Right now, Jordan Love’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 230.5 (-114) after it opened @ 233.5 (-114).
Pros
- An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Packers being an enormous -8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Packers to pass on 64.3% of their downs: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The projections expect Jordan Love to attempt 37.7 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.
- In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Packers grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.
Cons
- Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the model to call only 61.9 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The Packers have called the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.
- With a lackluster 61.1% Adjusted Completion% (12th percentile) this year, Jordan Love places among the least accurate quarterbacks in the league.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-lowest level in the NFL against the Detroit Lions defense this year (67.3% Adjusted Completion%).
- The Lions defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.52 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
274
Passing Yards
274
Passing Yards
