Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Howell from EV Insight

Sam HowellPassing Yards

Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 251.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 251.5 (-110) after it opened @ 264.5 (-114).

Pros

The projections expect the Washington Commanders offensive gameplan to skew 13.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Commanders being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this game.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Commanders to pass on 70.3% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Sam Howell has been one of the top QBs in football this year, averaging an outstanding 278.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offense to be the 10th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.34 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Dallas Cowboys, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.1 per game) this year.
Opposing teams have passed for the 2nd-fewest yards in football (just 182.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Cowboys defense this year.
This year, the imposing Cowboys defense has surrendered a puny 64.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
266
Passing Yards