Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for CeeDee Lamb from EV Insight

CeeDee LambReceiving Yards

Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 91.5 yards (-148/+108).

The public has bet the OVER up to 91.5 (-148) after it opened @ 86.5 (-117).

Pros

The Dallas Cowboys have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The model projects the Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cowboys are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.3 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game against the Commanders defense this year: 6th-most in football.
CeeDee Lamb’s 104.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season indicates a substantial progression in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 82.0 figure.

Cons

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a big 13.5-point favorite in this game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
98
Receiving Yards