Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Cowboys vs. Commanders
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 91.5 yards (-148/+108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 91.5 (-148) after it opened @ 86.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The model projects the Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cowboys are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.3 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game against the Commanders defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- CeeDee Lamb’s 104.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season indicates a substantial progression in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 82.0 figure.
Cons
- An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a big 13.5-point favorite in this game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
98
Receiving Yards
98
Receiving Yards
