Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Schultz

Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-115) after it opened @ 50.5 (-122).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
The predictive model expects Dalton Schultz to total 6.4 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
Dalton Schultz has posted quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (46.0) this season than he did last season (38.0).

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offensive strategy to tilt 1.4% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik now calling the plays.
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical approach.
At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in football (58.5% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (just 32.6 per game) this year.
This year, the imposing Arizona Cardinals defense has allowed a feeble 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 4th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards