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Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for C.J. Stroud from EV Insight

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C.J. Stroud

C.J. StroudPassing Yards

Player Props – Week 11

Texans vs. Cardinals

Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 269.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 269.5 (-115) after it opened @ 266.5 (-115).

Pros

  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Houston Texans have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.
  • The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
  • In averaging a colossal 36.9 pass attempts per game this year, C.J. Stroud slots in among the top QBs in the NFL (84th percentile) by this measure.
  • The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Cons

  • The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offensive strategy to tilt 1.4% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik now calling the plays.
  • With a 5.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical approach.
  • At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in football (58.5% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans.
  • Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (just 32.6 per game) this year.
  • C.J. Stroud has been one of the least accurate QBs in football this year with a 61.8% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 21st percentile.

Projection
THE BLITZ
279
Passing Yards

Previous Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight Next Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tank Dell from EV Insight