Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for C.J. Stroud from EV Insight

C.J. StroudPassing Yards

Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 269.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 269.5 (-115) after it opened @ 266.5 (-115).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
In averaging a colossal 36.9 pass attempts per game this year, C.J. Stroud slots in among the top QBs in the NFL (84th percentile) by this measure.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offensive strategy to tilt 1.4% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik now calling the plays.
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical approach.
At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in football (58.5% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (just 32.6 per game) this year.
C.J. Stroud has been one of the least accurate QBs in football this year with a 61.8% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 21st percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
279
Passing Yards