Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There are just two weeks left in the regular season, and Saturday’s slate features four matchups of top-25 teams. For the most part, the SEC schedule features a bunch of blowouts as the squads get ready for their rivals next Saturday. The contest we will focus on is the 3:30 p.m. ET CBS tilt between Georgia and Tennessee in Rocky Top. Let’s break down this matchup and see if there’s any value.
All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Georgia at Tennessee
3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Georgia -10.5 O/U 59.5
Last Year’s Meeting
This game had huge implications, as both Tennessee and Georgia were 8-0. An early FG gave the road Volunteers a 3-0 lead before Georgia scored the next three touchdowns on their way to a 27-13 victory. Stetson Bennett had two touchdowns passing and another one rushing, outdueling Hendon Hooker, who threw for only 195 yards and an interception. Overall, Georgia has a six-game win streak in the series.
Georgia’s Season at a Glance
The Bulldogs are 10-0, although their schedule was very easy at the start of the year. The defense was fantastic, stifling their opponents early, but once again they weren’t exactly the toughest. Only two of their victories has been by single digits. The first one was 27-20 at Auburn, as they were tied with the Tigers with 6:21 left to go. That didn’t last too long as Brock Bowers had a 40-yard touchdown catch that led to the win. Carson Beck has been pretty solid, throwing for over 3,000 yards and 18 touchdowns to go with five interceptions. He’s only been sacked eight times overall, so a lot of credit goes to the offensive line.
Tennessee’s Season at a Glance
The Vols romped in their first two games before a 29-16 loss at Florida that began to expose some flaws. They bounced back to win three in a row and then fell to Alabama in Tuscaloosa 34-20. Tennessee then won two straight before a very uninspiring effort against Missouri that saw them lose 36-7. The common threads for these losses were poor efforts on offense and a defense that couldn’t get the crucial stop. Despite solid numbers, Joe Milton III couldn’t live up to Hendon Hooker’s status this season as he threw for 16 touchdowns to only five interceptions but was inaccurate in their tougher games.
Matchup
I wonder what the vibes will be like for this game. Obviously, Georgia needs to win in order to keep their spot in the CFP, but they also already know that they will get Alabama in the SEC title game in a few weeks. Not that I’m predicting it, but a loss Saturday wouldn’t kill their chances if they beat the Crimson Tide. You also have a Vols team coming off a hideous loss that will be motivated for the defending champs in their building. Georgia may be undefeated in record, but they are 4-6 ATS.
One of the more lopsided matchups will be Georgia’s aerial attack against a Tennessee defense that is allowing teams to complete 66% of their passes. I fully expect Bowers and Ladd McConkey to be busy, as the weather will be conducive for passing. Last week it was Missouri RB Cody Schrader who did a lot of the damage vs. the Vols with 321 yards of total offense including 116 through the air. The Bulldogs defense is allowing 181.3 yards per game passing. This will put more pressure on a Tennessee offense that just can’t run the ball with any consistency.
Despite the three losses, Tennessee has been either tied or leading at the end of every 1st quarter this season. UGA is allowing eight points per 1st quarter on the road and maybe starts a little slow. Give me the Vols early to give their fans hope…before things get ugly later.
The Pick
Tennessee +2.5 first quarter
Bonus: Ladd McConkey anytime TD (even) — No. 1 WRs have had a lot of success against Tennessee. McConkey has been busy the last four games, and I think he finds the end zone for the third time.
