NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
C.J. StroudPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Texans vs. Cardinals
Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 269.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 269.5 (-115) after it opened @ 266.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.
- The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
- In averaging a colossal 36.9 pass attempts per game this year, C.J. Stroud slots in among the top QBs in the NFL (84th percentile) by this measure.
- The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offensive strategy to tilt 1.4% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik now calling the plays.
- With a 5.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical approach.
- At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in football (58.5% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans.
- Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (just 32.6 per game) this year.
- C.J. Stroud has been one of the least accurate QBs in football this year with a 61.8% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 21st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
279
Passing Yards
279
Passing Yards
