Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tank Dell from EV Insight

Tank DellReceiving Yards

Right now, Tank Dell’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-114) after it opened @ 57.5 (-114).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
Our trusted projections expect Nathaniel Dell to accrue 7.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Nathaniel Dell has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, posting a Target Share of 21.3% this year, which ranks him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offensive strategy to tilt 1.4% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik now calling the plays.
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical approach.
At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in football (58.5% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (just 32.6 per game) this year.
Nathaniel Dell grades out as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football, completing just 60.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 25th percentile among WRs

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards