NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Tank DellReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Texans vs. Cardinals
Right now, Tank Dell’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-114) after it opened @ 57.5 (-114).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.
- The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
- Our trusted projections expect Nathaniel Dell to accrue 7.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Nathaniel Dell has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, posting a Target Share of 21.3% this year, which ranks him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offensive strategy to tilt 1.4% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik now calling the plays.
- With a 5.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical approach.
- At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in football (58.5% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans.
- Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (just 32.6 per game) this year.
- Nathaniel Dell grades out as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football, completing just 60.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 25th percentile among WRs
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
