NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Bills vs. Jets
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (+100) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- Our trusted projections expect the Jets offensive scheme to lean 1.1% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
- A throwing game script is implied by the Jets being a -6.5-point underdog this week.
- The projections expect the New York Jets as the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Tyler Conklin comes in as one of the best pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a fantastic 39.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Jets to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The 10th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Jets this year (only 56.0 per game on average).
- The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- The Bills safeties profile as the 10th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
