Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (+100) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Our trusted projections expect the Jets offensive scheme to lean 1.1% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
A throwing game script is implied by the Jets being a -6.5-point underdog this week.
The projections expect the New York Jets as the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Tyler Conklin comes in as one of the best pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a fantastic 39.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Jets to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Jets this year (only 56.0 per game on average).
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Bills safeties profile as the 10th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards