Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cade Otton from EV Insight

Cade OttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (-115) after it opened @ 26.5 (-110).

Pros

At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are heavy underdogs in this week’s contest, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 63.0% of their downs: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Cade Otton’s 86.3% Route Participation% this season illustrates a significant progression in his passing game volume over last season’s 63.9% mark.
In this game, Cade Otton is projected by our trusted projection set to land in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.8 targets.

Cons

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The model projects the Buccaneers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.0 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Cade Otton has been one of the weakest tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 2nd percentile.
This year, the strong San Francisco 49ers defense has given up a mere 33.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 2nd-best in football.
This year, the imposing 49ers defense has surrendered the least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a feeble 4.7 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards