Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 206.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 206.5 (-114) after it opened @ 204.5 (-114).

Pros

Russell Wilson’s 67.8% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a noteable gain in his throwing precision over last year’s 59.3% rate.
This year, the weak Vikings defense has given up a whopping 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-largest rate in the league.

Cons

The Broncos feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to pass on 52.5% of their plays: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the model to call just 63.3 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-fewest among all teams this week.
The 4th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a measly 53.7 per game on average).
This week, Russell Wilson is predicted by the projections to have the 4th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 31.0.

Projection

THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards