Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Broncos vs. Vikings
Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-115) after it opened @ 68.5 (-118).
Pros
- The Broncos feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- Our trusted projections expect the Denver Broncos as the 4th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- In this contest, Javonte Williams is expected by the predictive model to place in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 16.9 rush attempts.
- Javonte Williams has been given 54.8% of his team’s rushing play calls this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
- With an outstanding rate of 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (77th percentile), Javonte Williams has been as one of the leading running backs in the league this year.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the model to call just 63.3 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-fewest among all teams this week.
- The 4th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a measly 53.7 per game on average).
- Javonte Williams’s rushing efficiency (3.75 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (24th percentile when it comes to RBs).
- The Minnesota Vikings defense boasts the 7th-best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, yielding just 3.83 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards
69
Rushing Yards
