Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Will LevisPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Jaguars vs. Titans
Right now, Will Levis’s passing yards prop is set at 219.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 219.5 (-115) after it opened @ 212.5 (-118).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- A passing game script is indicated by the Titans being a -6.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.
- This year, the deficient Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded a colossal 276.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 3rd-most in the NFL.
- This year, the shaky Jacksonville Jaguars defense has given up the 8th-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing offenses: a massive 5.32 YAC.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Titans to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
- The model projects the Titans to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.9 plays per game.
- The Tennessee Titans O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Jaguars cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best CB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
213
Passing Yards
213
Passing Yards
