Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chigoziem Okonkwo from EV Insight

Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards

Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (+114/-146).

The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (+114) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).

Pros

The Tennessee Titans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
A passing game script is indicated by the Titans being a -6.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.
In this contest, Chigoziem Okonkwo is projected by the projection model to position himself in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.8 targets.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has been a much bigger part of his offense’s passing offense this season (15.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (10.8%).

Cons

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Titans to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The model projects the Titans to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.9 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a significant regression in his receiving prowess over last season’s 71.9% rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards