Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kyler Murray from EV Insight

Kyler MurrayPassing Yards

Right now, Kyler Murray’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 234.5 (-113) after it opened @ 241.5 (-114).

Pros

A throwing game script is suggested by the Cardinals being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
The model projects the Arizona Cardinals to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
In this game, Kyler Murray is anticipated by the model to total the 5th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.2.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 9th-most adjusted yards in football (264.0 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.8% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
At the present time, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (58.5% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Cardinals.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
With a weak 6.18 adjusted yards-per-target (10th percentile) since the start of last season, Kyler Murray stands among the least effective passers in the league.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Houston’s CB corps has been great this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
237
Passing Yards